OUR MISSION
We model decisions, not just data.
Geopolitical crises don't announce themselves. But their seeds are already here. At Anadyr Horizon, our mission is to expose what others don’t see—the hidden systems, subtle signals, and cascading decisions that drive escalation.
We chose the name Anadyr because it was the Soviet codename for one of the most dangerous strategic deceptions in history. In 1962, the U.S. President had minutes to respond to Soviet missiles in Cuba - it nearly triggered a nuclear war. Today, it reminds us what’s at stake when signals are missed and decisions cascade without control.
Geopolitical crises don't announce themselves. But their seeds are already here. At Anadyr Horizon, our mission is to expose what others don’t see—the hidden systems, subtle signals, and cascading decisions that drive escalation.
We chose the name Anadyr because it was the Soviet codename for one of the most dangerous strategic deceptions in history. In 1962, the U.S. President had minutes to respond to Soviet missiles in Cuba - it nearly triggered a nuclear war. Today, it reminds us what’s at stake when signals are missed and decisions cascade without control.
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Operational Excellence
This is a space to share more about the business: who's behind it, what it does and what this site has to offer. It’s an opportunity to tell the story behind the business or describe a special service or product it offers. You can use this section to share the company history or highlight a particular feature that sets it apart from competitors.
Let the writing speak for itself. Keep a consistent tone and voice throughout the website to stay true to the brand image and give visitors a taste of the company’s values and personality.
OUR STORY
Anadyr Horizon began as a question: What if we could catch the next crisis—not in the headlines, but in its first moves?
That question took root inside the Negotiation Task Force (NTF), a Harvard-incubated R&D group where our team designed immersive crisis simulations for national security professionals, diplomats, and corporate leaders. The work was rigorous, systems-focused, and field-tested in high-stakes environments across Asia and the Middle East.
One of those simulations—Red Horizon—became a turning point. Designed to model great power escalation dynamics, it anticipated Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine 75 days before it happened. That wasn’t just a prediction. It was a demonstration of what’s possible when negotiation science, systems analysis, and cognitive modeling come together.
From that foundation, we built Anadyr Horizon Inc.
A new kind of company.
A new kind of infrastructure.
Not another dashboard or AI forecast—but a simulation platform built to reveal how decisions spiral, where escalation begins, and when there’s still time to act.
Founded by award-winning simulation designers, political scientists, and physicists, we carry forward a mission shaped by both research and reality:
To build decision infrastructure for the age of strategic surprise.
Today, we serve leaders in intelligence, defense, finance, and insurance who can’t afford to be surprised.
Anadyr Horizon is no longer a simulation experiment.
It’s operational.
WHO WE ARE
Meet the Founders
Visionary Founders with a Proven Track Record in Advanced Simulation Design.
DR. WILLIAM C. POTTER
ADVISOR
Professor and global authority on nuclear negotiation simulations. Created the world’s largest open-source WMD database.
SCIENTIFIC FOUNDATION
Built on the Shoulders of the World's Top Simulation, AI, and National Security Research.
Our Leadership Team brings together experience from Harvard, Princeton, Stanford, the Max Planck Institute, and the United Nations — with a track record spanning nuclear diplomacy, AI agent modeling, cryptographic treaty design, military simulation, and systems-level crisis forecasting.
Dr. Arvid Bell, a former lecturer at Harvard University’s Faculty of Arts and Sciences, is the founder of the Negotiation Task Force (NTF). Through NTF, he has designed and led advanced crisis simulations for the U.S. Army, Navy, Air Force, USSOCOM, and the Department of State. He has worked on the ground with international partners in high-risk geopolitical environments across Afghanistan, Asia, and the Middle East.
Dr. Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress, an experimental physicist and co-author of "Nuclear Choices" (MIT Press), has worked with the Max Planck Institute, Princeton University, and Stanford, and advised the UN Institute for Disarmament Research and the Pacific Islands Forum. His research has powered warhead tracking frameworks, treaty simulations, and missile trajectory modeling.
Dr. William Potter, a world authority on nuclear negotiation simulations, is the founding director of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) at Middlebury and has consulted for the United Nations and governments around the world on WMD security and disarmament.
Our leadership team brings together experience from Harvard, Princeton, Stanford, the Max Planck Institute, and the United Nations — with a track record spanning nuclear diplomacy, AI agent modeling, cryptographic treaty design, military simulation, and systems-level crisis forecasting.
Dr. Arvid Bell
Founder, Negotiation Task Force (NTF)
Former Lecturer, Harvard University
Led advanced crisis simulations for the U.S. Army, Navy, Air Force, USSOCOM, and the Department of State. Has worked in Afghanistan, Asia, and the Middle East on high-risk geopolitical issues.
Taylor Quill
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Kris Ward
Position / Role
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